Work package 4: Develop specific liberalization scenarios

Team leader: CIHEAM/IAMM (France)
Other participants : CSIC, INRA, METU, IAV

Description of work

In this task, we will develop the liberalization scenarios to be used to estimate quantitatively and qualitatively the production, income, budget, and social impacts of EU-MED trade liberalization. These scenarios will suppose concessions to be made both by the EU and the Mediterranean countries. The point of departure for developing the liberalization scenarios will be the work in task 3 that delineates the current situation for all the important agricultural products traded or tradable between the EU and Mediterranean countries. We will hold user workshops to help develop the scenarios to be tested. Participants in the workshops will include EC staff, political representation of different positions regarding EU-MED trade liberalization, Mediterranean country participants, and project staff.

We expect to create three scenarios, one of which would be a free trade agreement in effect by the end of the ten year transition period. The other two scenarios would maintain certain levels or types of protection both by the EU and Mediterranean countries.


The deliverable on this task is a paper explaining in detail the contents of the liberalization scenarios that were developed. This information in this paper will be used in tasks 5 and 6 to conduct the panel and quantitative analyses.