Work package 5: Estimate the production and export potential for each Mediterranean country

Team leader: CIHEAM/IAMM (France)
Other participants : ENSAM , METU, IAV, IO , UC

Description of work

We will select the most important fruit and vegetable products for each major exporting country using the data from task 1, focusing on the five countries that account for about 95 percent of the EU imports from Mediterranean countries of fruits, vegetables, processed fruits and vegetables, and oils. We will assemble expert panels in these countries and ask them to provide their assessment of the production and export potential for each crop or product. CIHEAM/IAMM has a large and effective network of contacts throughout the Mediterranean region. We will draw upon that network plus the expertise that exists in the partner institutions to conduct these analyses.

These export changes and the scenario definitions together define the expected export response to the protection changes. The production potential will be estimated for a medium term (3 year) horizon and a long term horizon of ten years. We will use the Delphi method for constructing different production and export scenarios using the expert panels. This procedure makes it possible, a priori, to consider all the relevant factors and the way they combine, thus generating a judgement from an essentially systemic perspective. The Delphi method aims to systematically structure the information provided by a pre-selected group of individuals on a complex problem, with a view to establishing consensus. We would also use preliminary CAPRI results (see WP6) in the Delphi process to obtain expert reaction regarding the realism of these results.
In addition to the production potential assessment, we will conduct case studies of the agro-industrial sectors in Morocco, Turkey, and Tunisia. These case studies will evaluate the potential to expand value-added agro-industrial processing in each country using regional expertise and previous work done at IAMM/INRA on agro-industrial firms.

Deliverables

There will be one report for each of the major exporting countries (Morocco, Turkey, Tunisia, Egypt, and Israel), one report covering processed food export potential in Morocco, Turkey, and Tunisia, and one summary report covering export potential for the Mediterranean region.

Share of Mediterranean Exports to the EU for each Product Category (1997-2000)

Country	Vegetables	Fruits	Oils	Processed Fruits and Vegetables
Turkey	21.50%	60.27%	9.53%	67.22%
Morocco	34.36%	15.49%	1.49%	17.18%
Israel	19.41%	16.00%	2.85%	13.70%
Tunisia	0.72%	4.00%	85.56%	0.23%
Egypt	15.93%	0.84%	0.22%	0.17%
Total	91.91%	96.59%	99.65%	98.49%