Work package 6: Quantify possible changes in European and Mediterranean production, imports, and exports of important commodities

Team leader: IAP, University of Bonn ( Germany)
Other participants : CIHEAM-IAMM, INRA, METU, IAV, IO, UC

Description of work

In this task we will make use of quantitative techniques (CAPRI and Mediterranean country models) to estimate possible changes in European imports and exports of agricultural commodities to Mediterranean countries. Because the possible changes in protection in some of the scenarios will be quite large and because fruits and vegetables are quite complicated, none of these models nor any models can be expected to accurately capture all the impacts of the trade liberalization. Nonetheless, the modeling tools will be useful in several respects:


This task will have three deliverables: the report containing the analysis using the CAPRI model, a report containing analysis from the CGE model for Morocco to capture whole economy effects, commodity changes, plus food processing impacts, and a report based upon the analysis using the Turkey agricultural sector model to capture the changes throughout the agricultural system in Turkey.