WP6

Work package 6: Quantify possible changes in European and Mediterranean production, imports, and exports of important commodities

Team leader: IAP, University of Bonn ( Germany)
Other participants : CIHEAM-IAMM, INRA, METU, IAV, IO, UC

Description of work

In this task we will make use of quantitative techniques (CAPRI and Mediterranean country models) to estimate possible changes in European imports and exports of agricultural commodities to Mediterranean countries. Because the possible changes in protection in some of the scenarios will be quite large and because fruits and vegetables are quite complicated, none of these models nor any models can be expected to accurately capture all the impacts of the trade liberalization. Nonetheless, the modeling tools will be useful in several respects:

They will be quite helpful in capturing the impacts of increased EU exports to Mediterranean countries because the likely exports are crops already contained in the models with rich representation of current policies.

CAPRI will be helpful in estimating budget impacts because it has a FEOGA budget module that can track changes in anticipated budget expenditures given that parameters are provided through the scenario definitions in task 5.

With additional inputs and specification CAPRI can provide some generalized impact information for fruits, vegetables, and olive oil. The medium and long-run export responses from the five major exporters considered in task 5 can be used to improve this part in the CAPRI model.

The country case study models for Turkey and Morocco will be useful in enriching the country specific analyses for those countries.

This task will have three deliverables: the report containing the analysis using the CAPRI model, a report containing analysis from the CGE model for Morocco to capture whole economy effects, commodity changes, plus food processing impacts, and a report based upon the analysis using the Turkey agricultural sector model to capture the changes throughout the agricultural system in Turkey.