WP8

Work package 8: Estimate the changes in European production, incomes, agricultural budgets, social changes, and other impacts

Team leader: CIHEAM/IAMM (France)
Other participants : CSIC, ENSAM, IAP, INRA, METU

Description of work

This task involves bringing together the expert judgment analyses (task 5), the modeling analyses (task 6), and the international linkages analysis (task 7) to produce a coherent and informed assessment of the changes in European agriculture likely to be induced by each liberalization scenario. The analysis will not take as given the results of either the models used or the expert panels but will incorporate elements from both to produce the most reasonable set of conclusions and will then test these conclusions with expert and user workshops. Some of the important outputs of the analysis are as follows:

Changes in European production due to Mediterranean imports. This analysis will be done for each major production area for each important commodity.

Changes in EU agricultural budgets under each scenario. These budget changes will be done using the CAPRI budget module and parameters from the scenario definitions.

Changes in European agricultural incomes in fruit, vegetable, and olive oil production areas and in areas with increased exports to Mediterranean countries.

Description of social changes induced by trade liberalization in each of the major European production areas seriously impacted by liberalization.

Deliverables

From this task, we will produce the main project report, which likely will be a book covering the analysis conducted throughout the project including the conclusions reached in this task on the impacts of trade liberalization on the European Union.