The overall objective of this project is to estimate
and describe the impacts on European countries of agricultural
trade liberalization in the Mediterranean region.
The major changes to be expected are increased EU imports
of fruits, vegetables and olive oil and increased EU
exports to non-EU Mediterranean countries of cereals,
meats, and milk products.
Estimation of changes in exports of cereals, meats,
and milk products will be done using the CAPRI model.
For fruits, vegetables and olive oil, available quantitative
models are not sufficient to properly capture the complexity
of the phenomena involved (many different products,
various seasonal patterns, complex detailed trade regimes).
Expert panels for the Mediterranean countries with substantial
export potential will be used to complement modeling
approaches done at the country level.